Prices, new disease stress S.C. cotton growers

• March 05, 2020

During the South Carolina Cotton Growers Meeting held here recently, Clemson Extension economist Nathan Smith told growers that despite stable demand for cotton worldwide, fluctuations in yields, prices and international trade have the potential to create stress for both producers and users.

“United States’ exports are projected to increase,” Smith said. “Even with more exports, however, we could see an increase in U.S. stocks due to higher production in 2019.”

Higher production and ending stocks going into 2020 for the United States led economists to forecast a season-average price of 63 cents per pound, Smith said.

While U.S. exports to China have decreased, markets in Bangladesh, Vietnam, Pakistan and Turkey have grown. But Brazil’s market share also has increased, further depressing cotton prices in the U.S. Reports show cotton prices will be volatile depending on acreage reports, crop conditions and weather.

“Right now, we don’t know where prices are going to go,” Smith said. “As they stand right now, we need good yields or help in the markets to cover costs. Our expectations for 2020 in S.C. are that cotton acreage will remain the same or be down a little.”

Clemson University cotton specialist Michael Jones said South Carolina cotton growers grew a good quality crop in 2019. To continue this trend in 2020, Jones said growers need to do their homework when it comes to variety selection.

“We had a good quality crop last year,” Jones said. “Lint yield was above average and fiber quality was excellent. To continue to have good crops, growers will need to study and determine which variety or varieties will work best for them.”

Variety selection criteria include: yield potential, yield stability, fiber quality, value-added traits, plant maturity, nematode resistance, stormproof ability, lint percentage and leaf hairiness. DP1646B2XF is one variety that has been popular with farmers in the Cotton Belt North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, Arkansas, Louisiana, eastern Texas and Southern Oklahoma.

While cotton quality may be high, cotton acreage is forecast to drop 25% in South Carolina in 2020. The latest USDA figures show 300,000 acres were planted in cotton in South Carolina in 2019. Projected cotton acres for 2020 in the state are 224,167.

In addition to prices and variety selection, cotton growers also were made aware of a new cotton disease. According to John Mueller, Clemson cotton pathologist, cotton growers need to be on the lookout for cotton blue disease. This disease is caused by the cotton leafroll dwarf virus, transmitted by cotton aphids. It first appeared in the United States in 2017 and was detected in 10 counties in South Carolina in 2019.